Abstract

ANDREOZZI, Lucía  and  RIBOTTA, Bruno. Fertility Probabilistic Projections in Argentina. Astrolabio [online]. 2023, n.31, pp.11-11. ISSN 1668-7515.  http://dx.doi.org/10.55441/1668.7515.n31.38015.

In recent years, a significant number of demographic statistical methods have been proposed. Most of them have been developed with the purpose of forecasting demographic components or indicators derived from the assumptions of an underlying model. The present work aims to carry out a comprehensive comparative exercise through the estimation and forecast of fertility based on three proposals -classic forecast methods such as ARIMA models and exponential smoothing, functional data models (FDM) and Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM)- as a first step towards the study of population projections derived from each of method, using data from Argentina. The exercise has as final objective the estimation of mortality and fertility through the three aforementioned methods to later integrate them into population projections.

Keywords : functional data models; Bayesian hierarchical models; global fertility rate; Argentina; demographic projections.

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