Abstract

BAZZANO, Flavia M et al. Tendencias en la precipitación en Tucumán bajo efecto del cambio climático. Meteorologica [online]. 2019, vol.44, n.2, pp.1-14. ISSN 1850-468X.

The empirical evidence, as well as the simulations, indicates that the global warming would induce an increase in the humidity of the air and in the intensity of precipitations in some regions of the planet. Such is the forecast for the province of Tucumán in the area within latitudes 26.1oS and 27.8oS and longitudes 64.8oW and 66.0oW, located in an intermediate geographical region between tropical and subtropical. From the daily rainfall records of 20 stations in Tucuman, trends in total annual precipitation, maximum daily and number of days with precipitation greater than the 95th percentile were analyzed. Significant negative trends predominate over a few positive ones obtained in the region, both in the annual totals and in the number of intense episodes in the period 1973 to 2015. However, in the stations with longer periods prevail significant positive trends. On the other hand, in the annual daily maximum series prevail non-significant trends. The statistical analysis of the historical series is an important tool that collaborates in the decision making to mitigate the effects of climate change in the region.

Keywords : Rainfall; Long term-trend; Climate change..

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