Abstract

POBLETE, Arnobio Germán  and  VERA, María José. Aplicación de la distribución de valores extremos a eventos geográficos poco frecuentes: Análisis del caso de la ocurrencia de heladas tempranas y tardías en el valle de Tulum, San Juan. Rev. Univ. geogr. [online]. 2019, vol.28, n.1, pp.113-133. ISSN 1852-4265.

The main objective of this work is to provide a methodological contribution for further research on the different approaches of Geography that have influence on the geographic space of unusual events that impact on its configuration and management. An example of the application of this methodology is the study on the inter annual occurrence of the dates of early and late frosts in Tulum Valley (San Juan), calculating the probability of exceeding a certain threshold and their time of recurrence. The calculation of the probabilities of exceedance (PE) and return period (RP) of these dates is performed with the distribution of the generalized extreme value (GEV) and its derivations. For dates of early frosts, it was estimated that the greatest risk of occurrence is between April 20 and May 15, which would have an impact on horticulture. In the case of late frosts, it is concluded that, unlike the former, they have greater probabilities of occurrence in the vegetative period, when fruit trees are budding and flowering, taking into account the phenological dates of sprouting, set and start of harvest.

Keywords : Gumbel; Frosts; Probability of Exceedance; Return Period; Valley of Tulum.

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