INTRODUCTION

Mathematical models of infectious diseases transmission allow to study different mechanisms which affect their temporal behavior. This work analyzed the impact of the decrease in transmissibility, as a result of measures of personal care adopted to reduce circulation of COVID-19, on the dynamics of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

METHODS

A deterministic SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible) model with seasonal modulation was used to represent two diseases with short-term immunity and annual cycle: influenza and RSV. Changes in disease transmissibility were modeled by reducing it for two years and analyzing different scenarios.

RESULTS

In the proposed model, transmissibility reduction brings changes which sustain in the following years: very pronounced epidemic events with lengthening of the inter-outbreak interval. This effect prevails over the seasonal behavior. The scenario of 40% initial reduction in transmissibility is compatible with the behavior of influenza and RSV currently reported in Argentina.

DISCUSSION

The general model proposed here, under conditions of temporary reduced transmissibility, shows an epidemiology compatible with recently reported data of influenza and RSV in Argentina. This result illustrates modeling as a useful tool to understand non-intuitive effects.

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