Abstract

SALOMAO NETO, Benito Adelmo  and  GOMES DA SILVA, Cleomar. ASSIMETRIAS E CAUSALIDADES ENTRE RECEITAS E DESPESAS PÚBLICAS NO BRASIL. Estud. econ. [online]. 2023, vol.40, n.80, pp.191-221. ISSN 2525-1295.

This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries and causalities. By using Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models with cointegration, the results show cointegration between total revenues and expenses, also disaggregated into mandatory and discretionary expenses. Also, fiscal policy in Brazil is a “spend-tax” type, for the relationship between revenues, total and mandatory expenditures, and “tax-spend” for the relationship revenues-discretionary expenditures. Asymmetry is found in the relationship between total and mandatory expenditures, which grow together with GDP and revenue growth, but do not fall in recessions. Decreases in revenues lead to reductions in discretionary expenditures, which works by adjusting the short run budget, making long-run fiscal balance viable.

Keywords : fiscal policy; NARDL; dynamic multipliers.

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