Resumen

MALVICINO, Facundo E.. Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity of Río Negro. An application to analyze the economic impact of COVID19. Rev. Pilquen. secc. cienc. soc. [online]. 2022, vol.25, n.2, pp.98-133. ISSN 1851-3123.

We estimate a monthly coincident index of regional economic activity for the Argentinean province of Río Negro from 2004 to 2020. We considered a set of series related to the economic cycle, assuming that there is a common unobservable factor that we estimate using dynamic factor models. The scarce and outdated official data for regional economic indexes justify this attempt, although it imposes another methodological problem related to the choice of a benchmark series. Despite the methodological issues, the estimated index reproduces the economic growth of Río Negro, and it allows analyzing the impact of exogenous shocks like COVID-19 on economic activity. The results confirm that the worst economic effect of the pandemic happened during the most stringent sanitary measures between March and April. In December of 2020, the recovery was not enough to reach the pre-pandemic levels of economic activity.

Palabras clave : Dynamic Factor Models; Economic Cycle; Regional Economies.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español     · Español ( pdf )