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Revista Argentina de Salud Pública
versión impresa ISSN 1852-8724versión On-line ISSN 1853-810X
Resumen
CHESINI, Francisco et al. Mortality Associated to Extreme Cold Events in Argentina, 2005-2015. Rev. argent. salud pública [online]. 2019, vol.10, n.41, pp.28-36. Epub 01-Dic-2019. ISSN 1852-8724.
INTRODUCTION
Mortality is associated with daily temperatures and extreme cold events. This study aimed to analyze the effects of low temperatures on mortality in the main urban areas of Argentina during 2005-2015.
METHODS
A time-series study with generalized additive models was conducted, modeling the relationship between low temperatures and mortality for 21 cities in Argentina between 2005 and 2015. Total mortality was analyzed as well as mortality by sex, age and cause of death, considering cold days, cold spells and delays of 7 and 14 days after those events.
RESULTS
Within a 7-day lag, the risk of death increases for a cold day in half of the cities analyzed between 1.04 [CI95%: 1.00-1.08] and 1.14 [CI95%: 1.06-1.23]. The most vulnerable group was people aged 65 or more years, with increases of up to 1.20 [CI95%: 1.05-1.39]. Cold spells are associated with an increased risk within the subsequent 7 days in 8 cities (1.05 [CI95%: 1.03-1.08] to 1.30 [CI95%: 1.03-1.65]), which increases to 10 cities for the 14-day lag, with slightly lower values.
CONCLUSIONS
With differences in magnitude and statistical robustness by cities, the population of most urban areas presents an increased risk of death within 7 and 14 days after an event of extreme cold.
Palabras clave : Cold Temperature; Extreme Cold; Mortality; Climate Change; Argentina.