Resumo

BERGERO, Paula E; FABRICIUS, Gabriel  e  HOZBOR, Daniela F. Non-mandatory immunization and its potential impact on pertussis epidemiology. Arch. argent. pediatr. [online]. 2018, vol.116, n.6, pp.418-422. ISSN 0325-0075.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5546/aap.2018.418.

In this study, we performed a quantitative analysis of the potential short-term consequences on pertussis of the draft bill on Informed Consent for Immunization proposed in Argentina in 2017, which considers a non-mandatory immunization schedule for minors. We used a mathematical model of pertussis transmission, which had been previously developed by our group. It is considered that the mere presentation of the project causes a reduction in coverage because it creates suspicion on the benefits of immunization. Assuming a 5 % annual reduction in coverage for 4 years as of 2018, in the next outbreak, severe cases in infants younger than 1 year will increase more than 100 % compared to the latest outbreak, with an estimated 101 deaths. With a 10 % annual reduction in the coverages for 4 years, the next outbreak would result in an increase of number of cases of more than 200 %, with 163 deaths.

Palavras-chave : Immunization coverage; Informed consent; Pertussis.

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