Resumo

EVANGELINA, Santilli,. COUNTRY RISK IN ARGENTINA. SaberEs [online]. 2022, vol.14, n.1, pp.33-52. ISSN 1852-4418.

Abstract. This work identifies the determinants of country risk in the Argentine economy. It is an extension and deepening of previous work. In recent years in some Latin American countries the country risk presented considerable variability, which motivates this work since the country risk is determined by changes in the economic fundamentals both locally and internationally. Likewise, it aims to serve as a useful instrument in decision-making when planning and carrying out growth policies via investments attraction. The data used correspond to Argentina in the period 1993-2019. To carry out the analysis itself, a panel data was used which included 8 Latin American economies for the mentioned period and the spatial dimension was fixed, that is, only Argentina. The results show the significant statistical and economic importance of the international interest rate, international reserves, and foreign debt to explain the country's risk. If the external debt increases, the country risk also increases, as far as reserves are concerned, an inverse relationship between country risk and international reserves is evidenced. These results are in line with previous studies, such as the investigations of Dumičić & Ridzak (2011), Hilscher & Nosbusch (2010), Jaramillo & Tejada (2011), Levy-Yeyati & Williams (2010), and Garcia Calvo (2017). The significant and statistical importance of the international interest rate appears as a topic to be developed soon, mainly because of the sign of the relationship.

Palavras-chave : Latin American Economies; Macroeconomic Fundamentals; Global Market Climate.

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